The case of spike, retail how to stake a problem
GEM GEM less than a week on the ups and downs, was a bit giddy. Decades of sword, shareholders of many small businesses listed on overnight become a butterfly and become a billionaire. GEM, really created a myth.
for the average investor, so the myth will continue? the market is the best choice for creating wealth it? how should a rational investment to greater returns? Therefore, this issue, Moderator: Tencent friends, Hello everybody! Welcome to from the Central University of Finance and Director of the China Banking Research Center, Guo Tian Yong teacher.
Guo Tian Yong: Members Tencent friends, Hello everybody! very pleased to have the opportunity to communicate with you.
Moderator: This is very familiar Ren Quan, a famous film star, Ren Quan as well as the other shareholders of the company is the Huayi Brothers.
Ren Quan: Hello everybody! am pleased to share with you some experiences of GEM, I was to learn something about the GEM there is some knowledge to share with you recently become a little GEM Huayi Brothers shareholders some experience.
Moderator: The last one is way from Hong Yuan Securities Research Institute, teachers, health and sports.
Cheng Wen-Wei: you friends, how are you! very pleased to be here with you to share some of the GEM of the investment experience and lessons learned.
institutional investors do not hype the GEM
Moderator: let us start the last Let's talk about the stock market situation in a few days, the GEM Listing 28 rises and falls a few days later. I would like to ask Ren Quan, 28, Huayi Brothers Company is also listed as a shareholder you are and what kind of consideration and shares Huayi Brothers?
Ren Quan: Actually, I signed this company Huayi Brothers has 10 years, so it is also the first artist's earliest employees, has simply asked grow together it is saying progress, bathe together to this day.
First, I think I like this company is feeling the Huayi Brothers, when the company of shares, I do not think so much, just think what they have to participate in the company.
I in three years ago to buy its shares, the original is a more conservative, I think there may be three times the company is listed five times, because from that time the price is concerned, I think has been very good very good. because each company great progress in both, so double the time to progress year after year, may be three times over the three years, five times to this point of view.
Moderator: Huayi Brothers stock price is more than 60 pieces, you will pay particular attention to stock up?
Ren Quan: The recent attention, because the GEM is a really hot, I did the first time to see the company as shareholders, will feel more attention.
the price is much better than I expected, but also very happy. We, as an investment to participate in this thing but at that time, specifically, the GEM of the things, I think I'm not qualified, I also as a small investor, is also kept in the school, watching, listening, to understand.
Moderator: We now listen to the views of experts, Guo teacher, I would like to ask your opinion, why would a large GEM rate fluctuations? a spike phenomenon it?
Guo Tian Yong: Indeed, the GEM is run from a few days of ups and downs of the stock market, we had expected before the market opened, the price for the GEM may be very high, because First, the issue of overall price-earnings ratio as 50 times the average price-earnings ratio, the issue price is very high. In addition, I have always thought that China's stock market has always had a habit of speculation of new shares, you remember a few years ago, when the SME board of several open stock speculation is very high. from the management is concerned, is indeed very contradictory state of mind, not out of hope after the plate was cold field conditions, do not want to be stir-fried situation. but mainly hope that the health of the market to smooth development. but want to go middle of the road may be more difficult, in general, all of China before the formation of a consistent understanding of all, if new shares are listed, it is certainly not the price is lower than the issue price. If issue price drop is definitely that you do not succeed in this stock issue, listed no success. In this case, release is the average price-earnings ratio of 50 times, before we opened, in fact, we did not dare to do too bold prediction, we did conservative forecast, I felt, at least 80 times I am afraid to be around the average price-earnings ratio.
Moderator: It is now more than 100 of the.
Guo Tian Yong: once reached 200 after opening. all of a sudden go up to speculation. We What really see a problem? small retail investors when the opening bell, then set or the first day of speculation all the time, so many people rushed to go, we may have such a concept may be considered as a small retail business board is a new thing, its future is relatively small scale of these enterprises, the development of uncertainty is relatively high, but the so-called high uncertainty, the DPRK is another aspect to it is the future growth potential will be very high, so we inside the courage to gamble, gambling may be more short-term situation.
Moderator: High risk brings higher income, people will think so eh?
Guo Tian Yong: Small retail investors dare to He is thought in the red, but I personally think that they may not think of a problem is this, this time we are institutional investors become more rational than the number of small investors, that on the one hand we may start some institutional ownership board be limited, on the other hand we feel that institutional investors, small retail investors from previous judgments, the GEM of each plate is so small, it is easy to be an empty plate, a body as long as the money a little more, it is easy to hold once a large proportion of this, then you can try for free, and can pull very high prices. like right now, institutions, especially those including the Fund, including institutional investors, does not seem to like to focus on the layout and speculation GEM , so there was very high the first day of red, second and third may be a situation of adjustment.
I judge the future in terms of GEM as a whole, these stocks at 100 times the average price-earnings ratio price-earnings ratio of more than I am afraid there is a problem in the future if we do not deny that some individual stocks, growth stocks because each is not the same, but on this section is concerned, more than 100 times the price-earnings ratio is certainly high. So if I to determine if there is speculation of a possible future for a reasonable valuation adjustment process.
into the report, the company is good or bad the GEM will be clearer
Moderator: Cheng teacher, you have a teacher for Guo expected, what kind of view you do?
Cheng Wen-Wei: I very much agree with Guo's view, because, after all GEM sword in the country in a decade, a lot of money are looking for a more suitable channel launched The GEM is a good channel, but from a historical statistical data, including as the United States, like some other countries, when the launch of the GEM, the beginning will have a 50% relative to the board compared to 100% premium space, with the increase in the number of GEM and its associated exit policy, that is, the risk of investors or the market is much larger than the motherboard, because when the motherboard market exit so there is a backdoor listing kinds of processes, for many listed companies on GEM, reach a certain number of shares or the average daily trading of financial indicators did not meet certain standards, then it will directly withdraw from the market, investors may directly lead to the risk of your investment is down the drain. So from a risk perspective, the GEM countries may be slightly higher than the final valuation of the motherboard market, but it will enter a relatively stable period.
for entrepreneurs in China, I think the board should also be Such a law, because after all, only the first 28, but in general, the plate is relatively small, so that the number of this issue's home, more and more investors involved in the hierarchy are not the same, Because from the current statistics, the majority of the time or purchase, such as funds, social security, their participation is still very high level of enthusiasm, but the secondary market transactions from the point of view, basically is a small list , for example, 500 shares, 1,000 shares, essentially reflected in the participation in the secondary market are basically small retail investors. from this point of view, then the investment structure, which is the current market, the GEM is still a relatively large The fluctuations.
Moderator: not particularly smooth.
process, health and sports: not yet entered a relatively stable period.
Moderator: If we look at its long-term trend is not even wait and see period of time.
process, culture and health: a contemplation for some time, until other small volatility of the market after some of the stock market will go through the test, especially into the future annual reports, as are many small companies as in previous years may will enter a rapid growth in 2009 annual report, with the 2010 mid-year report, which will reflect the growth performance of some companies it is saying is not really able to match the high share price, so to have opened. these days The stock price has reflected, and some continue to be strong through this two-day oscillations, and some stocks have entered a state of relatively weak.
Moderator: You said earlier that the relative weakness of those shares, which the company specifically? < br> Cheng Wen-Wei: There are some specific part of innovative companies is not very good, some into the relatively more traditional industries, creative class, because, after all we still prefer, as a higher number of culture media or the leading models include the emerging high- science and technology, may be more sought after in this respect that. the traditional everyone can see some of the traditional than some of these may slowly be emerging may be even lower valuations.
Moderator: Internet users have a view of such spike is now a trend, in addition to malicious speculation, the trading system is also defective, you think there is no justification for this view?
process, culture and health: from the transaction system, I think we all more compatible with the motherboard of this trading system, speaking from the defect, may not be what I think too much, I see the disk if so, should not feel too much out of the big problems.
GEM can contain actor is more indecent
Moderator: Now we talk about that in the present situation, under the GEM Is it worth investing? Ren Quan Do you have the intention of further shares, now holds 36 million shares of the premise. < br> Ren Quan: I actually really great for the direction of the financial sector is not very understanding, very interested, but I am not a professional, just an amateur's interest to pay attention to it every day. at least I think that I Huayi Brothers I personally think it stocks a lot of room, I will not easily shot, as do a lot of room in this industry, and indeed there are many things that can not be replicable, that is, as the Huayi Brothers, including some of its artists because we all know China does to so many artists, it is saying there is such a long contract period, you may want to think about copying this part, I think it is the big difficulty. It is possible, but I think that may take time , and the development of Chinese film and television is now the speed, I think including the Huayi Brothers took ten years ago this market, we can all do this thing, but I think you want to put all ten years There are all sorts of resources, inertia, as well as the leading company in the industry's position, I personally think that within the next few years, I think this is one of a sunrise industry.
There is a thriving company The mechanism, I understand now speaking, I think it is a lot of room, well not now a basic amount. including our chat, in fact, the company is not listed, we also talk about the industry, talk about this company things, so I am home I am very confident the company, including my friends would always consult the company in the end is how to a situation. I said every day a new company gave me a plan, all of the filming kind of things, in fact, not listed before it has done so, it is also trying to do the industry more professional and more standardized, and then did not touch a lot of things to integrate, and integrate resources, enabling The industry is more stable, and more professional. because it really is the first in this industry, in terms of the cultural industry. I see it in action, to more professional in doing the above.
also the fact that it is not a large plates, may be more concerned about it, we are more familiar with a lot of people, including actors, including his TV series, movies, and we may be more to pay attention to him. I think it is a good thing, but also a particular concern to you when you , you have to do a better job, or you will have to be flawless when we immediately found. likely that other companies may talk about or how, could this thing to spend them, not for our company you can not talk about things, your ticket is good we all know, today is your actors to what extent, we are all concerned, including myself, many people are about, you will not change that status or is does not affect your work, I said, I can only be forced to work harder to play because you play bad, your own worth will go down, there are so many investors involved.
So I think only After a transparent, we may include artists, artists in fact, have more sexual things with their own, including personal things, and now you may in a certain work, including many of your acts, including you out some of the acts can also affect There are some things that you may have to pay attention to behave, you're filming, you would like to try the shooting to have merit, otherwise I would be affected the stock.
28 GEM difficult enterprise future losses
Moderator: These are the new GEM listing, it seems that the scale of operation are 1 to 300,000,000, Guo, you can analyze, and now these companies listed on GEM, which is equivalent to the world in the company, its What size? it is now the main value of the investment in what?
Guo Tian Yong: First, I just heard about Ren Quan, the GEM in China, the GEM can bring a million people more dedicated, and if the concept into a more general through the GEM listing, indeed it may make our Company, the first is to find the value of the company, the second is to standardize the company's business, it is possible through the equivalent of such a platform incubator out of a group of tall trees to , from inside out slowly.
So in fact, as I have mentioned the concept of incubators back to the question you just asked, in fact, the threshold of the GEM should be as low as possible, or point of view from abroad, including the Nasdaq as the United States is indeed no threshold can be listed loss-making enterprises, loss-making enterprises can also be listed, in fact, it is such a financing platform, we may need most here is the side of some growth, there is potential for the future Some companies, in fact, the current, you are not very important to profit or loss.
on this issue, some time ago I have been writing some articles, but also about my point of view, this time we talk about the GEM, the provisions of our financing threshold more than 500 million profit for two consecutive years or more, or a first year profit of 10 million, 500 million or 10 million such profits, loss of business if you are, you are not not on the GEM, we are so required. so , once the number of listed companies to have been greatly reduced. now pick out 28, in fact, China can not achieve this under conditions of tens of thousands of small and medium enterprises, but the problem is that our process of selection of enterprises,UGGs, but also extend our board on the market that home, but down from a good pick, in fact, that 28 are selected to achieve the threshold of the enterprise are some very good business.
Moderator: be boss of their own profession.
Guo Tian Yong: In fact, the GEM we want it to be a high-risk, high-yield market, but include things like the Huayi Brothers, including as now there are some companies like GEM, I think their risk is not very large, it has such a problems, Ren Quan also introduced earlier, it is relatively speaking, after so much of development, is moving towards a quasi-mature, but not to a very mature, but the quasi-mature. If you can imagine their future losses of these companies can lose money, I think is very difficult, because it is now better than the whole framework has been a ride.
edge here to return to a problem? a problem we want to say, we are probably due to the capital markets, we compared the capacity or small, we have a GEM, we can not come to a sudden introduction of so many companies listed, but the fact that we are really back to the original nature of the GEM definition, we do not talk about this success the GEM board, should not pursue Let some of the more successful large enterprises or enterprise market. GEM does this threshold should be further sinking, and absorb some of the pioneering companies to market, even if some loss of business, as long as science and technology, the future growth potential , you can make it public. I have been a point of view, as the immediate results of operations of listed companies is good or bad is not important, the key is that it is true. So as a regulator to do? You just make sure you can turn the business presented to investors in the real side, you do not need to help investors decide who is the bright spot to find nannies, which company is good, what bad business, we now often do this thing Development and Reform Commission to analyze the financial situation.
business it not only icing on the cake board, but also to provide a temporary relief
Ren Quan: Guo, you are an expert, you can judge whether an enterprise is profitable or not profitable, the future of the company's future, but if I as an ordinary investors, I may to see that it does not make money, profit is not profit, I think most of the investors is the idea of view. For example, I do not professional, I see no profit in the listed company, for example, it is a lot of prospects, you is a professional analysis of the prospects for this company, I may as a man, I want to buy stocks, the result is not we just do not buy its stock was up?
Guo Tian Yong: GEM from an investment point of view, is suitable for professional investors , and is not suitable for ordinary retail investors to invest in general, that before we opened, when the GEM on the controversy over this issue, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission has required some brokerage accounts for the shareholders of GEM risk test should be carried out, it not for most ordinary investors.
but we talk about such a problem, we created the GEM What is the purpose? our core aim is to solve the problem of SME financing in the current financial crisis , just Chensuo Zhang told The GEM is a decade sword, why wear the sword for so long now beginning to see the effect.
99 years when he was on the GEM, we were also very hot, The Nasdaq was shattered, no one said, then added on the GEM, but the reasons are not very good. For example, the stock market rose in 2007, when more than 6,000 points, but also a rush GEM , then obviously, wanted to establish a multi-level GEM basic market as an important part of the motherboard market, the diversion of funds can not let up host go down, I have not finished, the organizers began to fall, so we also the desire not so strong. this time why the push, the financial crisis, the impact of financial crisis, particularly small and medium finally, we need solutions to SME financing, so the decision-making from the central to the industry, including academia, we reached on this issue consensus agreement,UGG boots, this is the case, it can launch it quickly.
we talk about this process, return to this issue, we hope that the GEM can really solve the problem of SME financing, and we hope that it can in this area play a larger role. I think some some companies, for example, a number of relatively more mature companies, some large enterprises, it is more financing channels, including the financial crisis, and why small and medium enterprises is difficult, As long as your relatively large-scale financing channels for enterprises can be very large, it can survive the crisis. and there are some small and medium enterprises is very difficult indeed, there is some edge scientific and technological content in particular, there are a number of growth companies are now you allow the banks to give it credit, no bank is willing to loan, banks are icing on the cake, then the market is not the icing on the cake also? In fact we hope that it can provide timely help is the best, why? investors assume some of the GEM relatively professional investors, then this time, I took a group of enterprises, even now there are some operations may be some problems or some enterprises it is not profitable, but if you only development of this enterprise growth of words, some professional investors are willing to put into these companies in the.
Why? as invested in these companies go, if the standard of the future, once cast, there is potential for investment or investment income, than you invested in seemingly large number of companies, your earnings may be higher. So, I'm sometimes on the very threshold of hope that the GEM can then further down, to solve some may not find it now appears very good business, a certain find some really difficult, but there is potential, there is some tech companies, this is the case, the GEM can be a real high-risk, high-yield market.
Shall we always want to get rid of the risk , get some good market for you to vote, I always think that there is a special foreign junk bond market, some people like to play this junk bonds, may not principal, may be principal, a principal rate of return after very high, some people specifically to vote. GEM with the motherboard if you want anything, the high-risk, high-yield market, I think that should be reflected in this place, is the threshold to continue to decline.
counter money-losing enterprises can consider this financing platform
Moderator: Mr Guo told two things, first is a threshold as low as possible, and the second is not suitable for retail investments GEM, Cheng teacher, your views on how the teacher Guo think?
Cheng Wen-Wei: If an enterprise growth, and its prospects for the future is indeed good, in fact, everyone will have to provide some indicators as a reference, for example, is very simple it is an indicator of the growth of the financial indicators, if that better prospects for the industry, and every employee of this company, each shareholder is very hard, then it must be the operating results of the chain will grow there, that this quarter is better than the next quarter the next quarter will be better than this quarter. This is reflected in its growth. This is a simple comparison.
Moderator: loss of listed companies can not do?
process, culture and health: a loss of business to see how GEM a definition, I think that for most non-professional investors or investors who, you let it control of more of the financial analysis capabilities, including industry analysis, is indeed more difficult. For this part of the people, and if he wants a higher risk of companies involved in the case, as he went to commission a number of professional organizations, such as commissioned by the Fund or to choose some of the sun to go private.
is not a loss of businesses to market, this is only we, as a suggestion, for good business, we certainly hope to provide such a platform for investment and financing may not necessarily be the GEM, there is what might be the counter, etc., to a real China multi-level capital market, both the Main Board, GEM another counter, OTC regional trading center for another property, property rights for such large transactions, investment and financing for many participants, it can participate varieties are more and more. because after all, after so many years of development in China after a lot of people is more rapid accumulation of wealth, then it needs to have a growth in investment is a process.
retail is not necessarily so with low levels of investment plan No.
Moderator: it is appropriate to invest in this area retail GEM stocks in this area?
Cheng Wen-Wei: I think for individual investors, the retail Canglongwohu there is, and not necessarily the low level of retail investors who just like equate.
Moderator: But their money is less.
process, culture and health: retail does not mean he is now the future is retail, because we can see the sales department often have hundreds of thousands, hundreds of thousands a few years they become a large family or the public, and for any species, we should allow it to enter our tips for risk assessment of risk, the specific participation is left to their own they decided to do. < br> Ren Quan: Actually, I always want to on behalf of ordinary users, because you are experts, professionals, say so, in fact, investors should, I have talked about some of each enterprise to be more transparent, leaving investors can easily understand your business It is not very easy to do. For example as I do, I may be my business, I talk with others, others will soon easy to understand.
that 28 is not much, because I want to interested, I think the 28 small, every one is really long, from a realistic or how, but also can analyze, but you have to clear, your performance must be fair, to be accurate, not deceptive things. I also easy to feel that retail investors can enter, in fact, as you analyze and judge each person, for example, our company, I told everyone came out, honestly, we have a basic judgments, the Chinese market in the future our standard of living increasingly better, there are more and more movies, more and more demands in all aspects of this business well. For example, the other an industry Ultrapower, said the letter on the fly I was very interested, I can understand more about Some also know that it's growth.
lot of people say you do not play the stock market speculation in the end, how to fry, I said I really want to listen to some experts, I certainly believe they are a very kind and not fake the kind of judge or standing on the other point of view, is entirely a market stand point, because any profession has its specialty, you can not a person you know everything, just like me, I may acting is my profession, I read to learn this profession, you may share my interest, I may know that fur. but at least you let me know, I totally do not understand I do what I really can not do.
diversification can reduce the risk of stocks
Moderator: I just listen to Ren Quan means that the company's earnings related to the more transparent the better, so more conducive to a retail or small investors to know whether to buy this stock.
ask you about, you as shareholders of Huayi Brothers, the first listing is certainly feeling the benefits of self-evident, do you think the stock GEM this thing does have some risks?
Ren Quan: Actually, I personally think that the stock should be speculation, but speculation should not be violent collapse, something I need to see the policy. Some friends say concern about a stock, I may not be blind to go back to forward, I may have to look at news on this company I see some, is the policy of positive news or company news, at least a basic analysis, you just can not go blindly follow them, whether you buy retail or fund Ye Hao,
I think I at least have a basic understanding, I buy, the company fully you do not know what this industry, this industry in China's future development is what this industry can grow in all aspects or something You do not understand that, you blind speculation, that I'm sorry, you have to pay this cost and price. I think so, and you do not pay, including I think you need to do this homework is physical, mental, and you do nothing do want to benefit, I think you have to pay the cost of the GEM.
that is stuck or is part of the fall Ye Hao, including a lot of people I do not recommend to the pursuit of a certain something, I think unless you have a unique vision and a unique analysis or is your unique understanding of this industry, otherwise you do not buy today to go tomorrow. so I jumped a lot of people these days do you feel fall, in fact, the stock market should be like this Otherwise, do not call it the stock market. we forget the money in the bank, but also of interest, there is no spike, first, each person is indeed a psychological stock may have benefits that I have to fast, at least the psychological, But behind the fast gain may all know the risk, but each person may have been thinking I should not say that I want to get lost, at least I could invest the time, I was diversification, although I did not use so much money, but I think, certainly because you, after all, something that is not your investment professional, say you have five items or how, or even two projects have a project are not your sights, you at least There are three you have to analyze that, at least you win one, you win 2:2 on level one, including the play the stock market is, I told my friend said, you know? because I do not know, but I am speaking as a semi-expert I said, you know? you analyzed? You look at people making money, which the mystery more, people do not necessarily tell you so fine, to tell you which stocks to buy, tell you which day to sell you know? I In recent days that included the immediate spike can not see the future of GEM or how, could this thing we all have those irrational people may at this time you will be eliminated, or the most rational.
GEM is not the Main Board added
Moderator: Ren Quan just listened, and we then listen to expert analysis. Guo, you talk about the financing of SMEs in the GEM at the same time, what risks it will bring? < br> Guo Tian Yong: In fact you go to Hong Kong, Hong Kong GEM fact, in a kind of half dead you can do, it is not very active as a state. In fact, I have been thinking, why sometimes some of the GEM stocks Mainland enterprises listed some of our after-tax earnings per share, to 7,8 cents per year, the stock price is only twenty-three Hong Kong dollars, then you how to calculate earnings per share is only 3 times or 4 times, how so low? everywhere Gold in Hong Kong we are not to be robbed, compared to the case.
but you think it might have a problem? GEM a long time later, when the stock market becomes more standardized future, is there such a a problem, first, like talk about than just Chengsuo Chang, you listed the company, you are not the dragon, you worm, you are a general business, for example, although you have a very low price-earnings ratio, but you are a non-growth enterprises, the general processing and manufacturing, for example, only 10% growth or 5%, so good, you might even 3,4 times earnings is not a lot of money to go inside to fry, because first of all Your imagination is very small;
Second, the scale of their enterprises, and now relatively small, when along comes a wave of the future will be able to upset you, because the scale of these enterprises is relatively small.
In addition, Hong Kong, what ...
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