2011 Bank of China in the first half was a difficult period.
2010 in early, research institutions, generally judged that when the price is high in the middle two forms is low, because the hikes in June 2010, July at their annual maximum level of 2.1%, then dropped, and the new price is expected to relatively stable factors, but later, in August, after inflation, will no longer Xiabu Qu the.
forecast previously made judgments, ignoring an important premise: since the fourth quarter of 2009 to maintain the intensity of monetary tightening, and throughout the year in 2010.
2010 年 1 January to April, the monetary authorities have tried to strengthen the liquidity from the market recovery, recovery position through open market operations. However, to May, with the debt crisis intensified in Europe as well as on the domestic economy Monetary policy in fact return to the
the main differences between the current inflation is on the Chinese inflation is a short-term phenomenon or a long-term phenomenon.
that inflation in China is a reason for short-term phenomenon: the current inflation is a structural problem, weather, disasters have led to agricultural prices, high savings occurred under the difficult long-term inflation, excess capacity and so on. If the inference is valid, conclusions must be for the current price hikes, the central bank is helpless.
If you believe that inflation in China is a long-term phenomenon, we need to focus on the logic from a currency to explain. The logic is: Money - Assets - prices. This is not an excess of a de facto currency, but since 2003, the Chinese economy has entered a period of wide currency. Land and real estate prices have gone up only after passing through the appropriate channels to all areas of the price spread. It takes time to accumulate.
we are more concerned about the process of wage increases.
the demographic turning point from the rising wages caused by the release should be a uniform process, and in 2006, China's labor as wages rise like a steep cliff, is confusing. The release of Chinese labor is perfectly placed to dividends more even than Japan, more sustainable, because China's vast territory and regional differences may make the process has sufficient depth, the employers moved their factories to the mainland, or you can replace the manual with the machine However, factors such as the present cost of land in the mainland are also rising fast, so pay up showing overall rigidity.
Lewis believes that a country will also appear before the inflection point wages rise, mainly due to the subsistence wage level line up. Therefore, we have to look back to the currency of the bubble, the bubble is indeed a certain degree of China's labor force swallowed bonus. China could usher in a decade earlier sharp rise in labor wages.
lot of excess money go to the capital goods, land and property prices soaring, the town cost of living, business costs will go up, the worker's ability to pay is declining in real life, has reached unbearable point, of course, Forced wages. The relationship is relative, the cost of workers rose up means that the opportunity cost of farming, therefore, drawing the trend of prices of agricultural products. In turn, industry profits have become thinner, more funds away from the physical, driving the price of capital goods to rise faster, which is a self-reinforcing cycle.
If we agree that the Chinese currency long-term logic of inflation: Money - Assets - Prices and inflation control in fact becomes very clear direction, control logic in the middle of the key areas: assets.
settlement currency is not directly on price, but against asset bubbles, when asset prices down, and today might have run into problems no longer a problem, the inflation pressure of RMB appreciation, and so natural healing.
course to achieve this goal, we must accept the result of an economic slowdown. The current macro-control dilemma, but it is still the old problem: we are to maintain high speed, or to lower the price?
Liu Yuhui (Key Laboratory of Finance Director for the Academy of Social Sciences.)
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